Saturday, April 16, 2011
Friday, April 8, 2011
Friday, April 1, 2011
Hastily Prepared Phillies Prievew
So, the 2011 baseball season is upon us and the Philadelphia Phillies are the clear favorites in the NL. With one of the most dominant starting pitching staffs ever assembled and a track record of post season success, it is easy to overlook that this Phillies team is significantly weaker in every other aspect of the game than they were over the past three years. They've lost their number one right handed bat in Jayson Werth, their number one left handed bat (sorry ryan howard it's not you), and their closer who was already on the decline.
For all those who are expecting a bounce back year from Jimmy Rollins, don't. He is what he is. The mvp season was the anomaly. And the track record of speed guys who get older and start having injury problems does not bode well for J-Roll, especially considering he does not have the most fluid running motion.
For all those expecting a bounce back year from Ryan Howard, don't. Guys know how to get him out. He cannot hit a breaking ball, and he's not exactly getting any younger.
Ditto for other regulars Ibanez and Polanco. This lineup is OLD. When guys get old you can't look back at their career numbers and say they're going to hit like that again. And the bullpen? Ugh.
On a positive note, for all those who are expecting a bounce back year from Shane Victorino, do. The Flying Hawaiian is not the issue here. But that won't stop this team from making the playoffs and losing because they can't score any runs.
For all those who are expecting a bounce back year from Jimmy Rollins, don't. He is what he is. The mvp season was the anomaly. And the track record of speed guys who get older and start having injury problems does not bode well for J-Roll, especially considering he does not have the most fluid running motion.
For all those expecting a bounce back year from Ryan Howard, don't. Guys know how to get him out. He cannot hit a breaking ball, and he's not exactly getting any younger.
Ditto for other regulars Ibanez and Polanco. This lineup is OLD. When guys get old you can't look back at their career numbers and say they're going to hit like that again. And the bullpen? Ugh.
On a positive note, for all those who are expecting a bounce back year from Shane Victorino, do. The Flying Hawaiian is not the issue here. But that won't stop this team from making the playoffs and losing because they can't score any runs.
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Happy Opening Day
Get out your winter coats, gloves, and balaclavas and head to the ball park because it's Opening Day! Even though it's Thursday, MLB had the brilliant idea of starting the season off a little early. This will certainly backfire when no one shows up in the Bronx for 40 degree weather and rain. And can someone explain to me why the World Series Champs are starting the season on the road in LA? Now on to what our readers care about most - predictions. Obviously there is nothing shocking about these picks since only certain teams can be competitive in MLB. So here you are:
National League
NL East - Phillies (Mets will finish 4th)
NL Central - Cards
NL West - Rockies
Wild Card - Braves
American League
AL East - Red Sox
AL Central - Twins
AL West - Angels
Wild Card - Yankees
World Series - Red Sox over Rockies
Monday, March 14, 2011
Monday, March 7, 2011
Nice Going, M.T.A.
Over the last few years, the M.T.A. has made several service cuts and fare increases in the face of significant budget gaps. In June 2010, the V train (with service from Forest Hills to the Lower East Side of Manhattan) was eliminated and replaced by the M train (with service from Forest Hills to Middle Village, Queens via Manhattan).This and other service changes required the M.T.A. to replace a significant amount of signage across the subway system. One of the geniuses at the M.T.A. (probably some Local 100 worker) was clearly unaware of the popular acronym "FML," or "Fuck My Life." This embarrassment caused the M.T.A. to promise to change the signage as soon as possible. On the bright side, this sign is only at one station on 14th Street, but surely this is another example of wasteful spending by a NY State agency.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Government Shutdown
It seems this weekend as if anyone not preoccupied with riots in the Middle East or Midwest is focusing on the budget and the potential for a government shutdown following an Obama veto. So let me tell you all how it's going to play out, and then you can thank me later for saving you valuable time and eye power. It will get leaked that the White House is in "negotiations" with Republican leadership to reach a compromise bill. After much starting and stopping and many additional leaks expressing the anger and frustration of the various factions, voila said compromise will be reached. The new bill will closely mirror the initial Republican proposal save for a few changes designed to appease the ignorant public. Such is pragmatism in a one, I mean two, party system. Nothing to see here. Move along.
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Friday, February 4, 2011
October 19, 2006
This was the night of Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS between the Mets and Cardinals at Shea Stadium. Oliver Perez with his 3-13 record and 6.55 ERA got the start for the injury-depleted Mets. Jeff Suppan was on the mound for the Cards. It was the top of the sixth inning and the score was 1-1; each starter managed to get through two lineups full of nervous players. Perez was due to face the Cardinals' 4-5-6 hitters. Juan Encarnacion (quite a cleanup hitter, right?) grounded out 5-3 on just 4 pitches. Jim Edmonds was due next. Perez walked Edmonds after a 7-pitch at bat. Manager Willie Randolph surprisingly left in Perez - who had given the Mets more innings than they could have asked for. Next up was Scott Rolen at about 10:03pm. The third baseman was sitting on a fastball and swung on the first pitch. He launched a towering fly ball to deep left field. Back went Endy Chavez, who was in the game because of an achilles injury to Cliff Floyd. Chavez lept over the wall and snow coned a certain 2-run home run. Chavez even had the awareness to double off Edmonds at first base. At the time this seemed like the greatest catch in MLB playoff history. Shea Stadium was shaking and the fans couldn't stop chanting "ENDY CHAVEZ, ENDY CHAVEZ." But what happened in the ninth inning certainly caused some of us Mets fans to forget how close they were to greatness. Looking back to another catch that happened three years ago last night, can you imagine if the New York Giants didn't end up beating the New England Patriots after David Tyree made the Helmet Catch? That amazing play would certainly be forgotten.In retrospect it is oddly amusing that Endy caught that ball over an AIG advertisement that read "The Strength To Be There." Since then the Mets collapsed twice and wasted 2 seasons in their new stadium. In addition to several embarrassing off-the-field incidents, they fired two managers (Randolph and Manuel) and cleaned out the front office. Will the 2011 Mets have new ownership? Probably not, but I sure hope they will. In the meantime, I will try to remember the catch that made me believe for a moment I was witnessing something special.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
"The Gloves are Off"
The Madoff Mess is about to get very interesting. After settlement talks stalled because of a series of media leaks, both the Mets ownership and Irving Picard, the Madoff estate trustee, wrote today to the federal bankruptcy judge overseeing the case telling him that settlement talks had ended and urged him to unseal the lawsuit. Several media outlets filed a motion to unseal the suit and a hearing had been scheduled on that matter for February 9th. It's possible the seal could be addressed sooner. Stand by...
Madoff Mess - Part 2
So I went to WSJ.com and noticed these two advertisements. Earth to Xerox, the Mets are an embarrassment. 
Madoff Mess - Part 1 of Many
Looking back to my blog post in November welcoming new GM Sandy Alderson, I discussed one of the most recent stories about how the Mets mismanaged resources. They deferred $5.9 mm of Bobby Bonilla's salary in 1999 at a rate of 8%. Now Bobby is back on the payroll for the next 25 years. I scratched my head over this high accrual rate. It is common to defer salary so the ownership can lower the present value of a large contract. They typically reserve that cash and/or invest in a low-risk security. In some cases they can earn a return on that money higher than the salary's deferral rate. For example, Johan Santana defers $5 mm annually at 1.25%; Carlos Beltran deferred $22 mm of salary at 1.72%. If ownership put that money into tax exempt municipal bonds or medium-term treasuries, they would earn a return higher than the deferral rate. But 8% for Bobby Bonilla's salary? That is crazy. Yes, rates were especially high in 1999, but that deal should have raised many red flags.A report in the New York Times this week discusses how Bernard Madoff had a significant role in Mets finances - more than 500 accounts can be tied to the Wilpon family and Saul Katz. The Mets even placed deferred salary into Madoff accounts. The article quotes a former Mets employee who claims Bernie returned 18% each year to the Wilpons/Katz. No wonder they put Bobby's deferred salary into a Madoff account - they leveraged off of their own players to put more money in their pockets.
Let's also not forget how the Wilpons handled retirement savings for their employees at Sterling Securities, one of their real estate investment businesses - they put 92% of a 401(k) plan into Madoff accounts. The widow of an employee who lost his entire savings is currently in litigation with Fred Wilpon, the trustee of the plan.
Now that Fred Wilpon announced that he is seeking a limited partner of about 25%, the floodgates have opened. But who would do business with these guys without receiving control of the team and having to deal with legal risks? Besides the control issues, there cannot be much equity value in the team, which according to Forbes is worth roughly $845 mm. Keep in mind the team has $375 mm of debt and the stadium has $695 mm of debt. Also, attendance is way down and the team's brand has been crushed by poor play on the field and ownership's financial woes. The only value is in the team's 60% stake in SNY, the regional cable network that broadcasts Mets games. SNY, which is owned jointly with Comcast and Time Warner, is rumored to be worth $1.3 bb and brings in $150 mm of subscriber fees annually. This is a much sturdier asset and could receive significant interest from value investors.
The offices of Baker Hostetler, the firm tasked with untangling the Madoff mess, share a floor with me. I often have the pleasure of hearing lead counsel and partner David Sheehan shitting his brains out in the men's restroom. A colleague of mine has heard from a Baker lawyer that this is just the tip of the iceberg (no pun intended). I know that the suit against the Wilpons was filed in bankruptcy court, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Department of Justice is working on a criminal case. In the meantime, Let's Go Mets!!
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Saturday, January 15, 2011
If You Made a Movie with Only "That Guy" Actors...
It would be this (they even have the "that guy" announcer).
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Monday, January 10, 2011
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Jimmy
Friday afternoon was a great day to be a fan (of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish). As for the 49ers, color me skeptical of big Jim and the 49ers move. In no particular order, here are some thoughts on Mr. Harbaugh.
1. He's a very good college coach
The idea that Stanford can go 12-1, stomp on Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl, and probably finish #3 in the country (especially if Oregon wins convincingly Monday night) is still ridiculous. While some of their success certainly can be pinned on Andrew Luck, Harbaugh deserves credit for bringing him in 3 years ago when they were rebuilding. Furthermore, their offense is a balance scheme that doesn't depend on Luck winning the game on his own and their defense is certainly competent enough despite not having many guys who have a chance to play on Sunday. As a fan of a college team that plays both Stanford and Michigan every year, I'm pretty happy he won't be at either school.
2. He seems like a massive jerk.
After Va. Tech quarterback Tyrod Taylor make a great scramble and throw Monday night, he seemed to get a heated conversation with Harbaugh on the sidelines (it looks like Harbaugh is the guy in black pullover pointing at the sideline). Whether Taylor stepped on the sidelines is not material. The fact that Harbaugh, instead of directing his anger at the official who made the call, starting yapping at Taylor is. Coaches shouldn't be jawing with opposing players, especially at the college level where there is a massive age gap and the coaches are suppose to be greater role models/father figures. While some people may like Harbaugh's passion, I think it just shows he's a jerk who still thinks he's a player. It reminded me of when Harbaugh failed to shake Jimmy Clausen's hand for because he's a sore loser. And the time he went for 2 against USC up 25 points. And those general ESPN stock clips of him before a game, where he looks like he's in the mosh pit at a Soundgarden concert.
3. The 49ers had no choice.
After boy genius Jed York (whose qualifications to run the team are that his family owns the team, everyone hates his dad, and his uncle has been banned for bribing politicians) fired pantless Mike, he made it clear that changes would be made. Of course 3 days later, he made the interim GM (the one who inherited the job only because the last one resigned for "personal reasons" 2 weeks before the draft) the full time GM, which inspired no confidence in the Bay Area. While there were other candidates out there, such as Marty "Punt to Start Overtime" Mornhinweg, clearly Harbaugh was the big name out there and even more so in the Bay Area. If they had failed to bring in a respectable name, the fans base would have immediately given up on Jed and the team, which is a bad thing when you're still trying to leverage the city into building you a new stadium. So while 5 years/$25M seems like a lot, it would have looked worse if someone like the Dolphins, Michigan, or Stanford outbid them. Given that the years and dollar amount are the same Dan Snyder gave Steve Spurrier 10 years ago, it doesn't look that bad.
4. This isn't going to end well.
For every Bill Walsh (who really made his name as an assistant on the Bengals in the mid 1970s before going to Stanford) or Jimmy Johnson, there are many more Nick Sabans and Bobby Petrinos, and recent years have only exacerbated the divide between college and professional coaching. Given what I said in point 2, I don't know if NFL players will buy the tough guy act that Harbaugh spend so much time portraying. It's one thing to be the intimating coach at Stanford (where the students probably are already more respectful to authority than the average college football player); it's quite another to do in the land of $20 million bonus and the salary cap. If Jim doesn't like a guy, he just can't recruit a replacement or even threaten to pull the scholarship. Instead, you are stuck with the hand you are dealt. The decrease in authority is something both Pete Carroll and Nick Saban talked about when they went to college, and I can't imagine it will sit well with Harbaugh long term. Even if he does quite well, then the odds of a power struggle between Harbaugh and new GM Trent Baalke will just rise exponentially as Harbaugh tries to regain the personnel authority he enjoyed at Stanford. Ultimately, I will be shocked if he actually finish his 5 years and even more shocked if the Niners enjoy serous success (NFC Championship game appearance or better).
1. He's a very good college coach
The idea that Stanford can go 12-1, stomp on Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl, and probably finish #3 in the country (especially if Oregon wins convincingly Monday night) is still ridiculous. While some of their success certainly can be pinned on Andrew Luck, Harbaugh deserves credit for bringing him in 3 years ago when they were rebuilding. Furthermore, their offense is a balance scheme that doesn't depend on Luck winning the game on his own and their defense is certainly competent enough despite not having many guys who have a chance to play on Sunday. As a fan of a college team that plays both Stanford and Michigan every year, I'm pretty happy he won't be at either school.
2. He seems like a massive jerk.
After Va. Tech quarterback Tyrod Taylor make a great scramble and throw Monday night, he seemed to get a heated conversation with Harbaugh on the sidelines (it looks like Harbaugh is the guy in black pullover pointing at the sideline). Whether Taylor stepped on the sidelines is not material. The fact that Harbaugh, instead of directing his anger at the official who made the call, starting yapping at Taylor is. Coaches shouldn't be jawing with opposing players, especially at the college level where there is a massive age gap and the coaches are suppose to be greater role models/father figures. While some people may like Harbaugh's passion, I think it just shows he's a jerk who still thinks he's a player. It reminded me of when Harbaugh failed to shake Jimmy Clausen's hand for because he's a sore loser. And the time he went for 2 against USC up 25 points. And those general ESPN stock clips of him before a game, where he looks like he's in the mosh pit at a Soundgarden concert.
3. The 49ers had no choice.
After boy genius Jed York (whose qualifications to run the team are that his family owns the team, everyone hates his dad, and his uncle has been banned for bribing politicians) fired pantless Mike, he made it clear that changes would be made. Of course 3 days later, he made the interim GM (the one who inherited the job only because the last one resigned for "personal reasons" 2 weeks before the draft) the full time GM, which inspired no confidence in the Bay Area. While there were other candidates out there, such as Marty "Punt to Start Overtime" Mornhinweg, clearly Harbaugh was the big name out there and even more so in the Bay Area. If they had failed to bring in a respectable name, the fans base would have immediately given up on Jed and the team, which is a bad thing when you're still trying to leverage the city into building you a new stadium. So while 5 years/$25M seems like a lot, it would have looked worse if someone like the Dolphins, Michigan, or Stanford outbid them. Given that the years and dollar amount are the same Dan Snyder gave Steve Spurrier 10 years ago, it doesn't look that bad.
4. This isn't going to end well.
For every Bill Walsh (who really made his name as an assistant on the Bengals in the mid 1970s before going to Stanford) or Jimmy Johnson, there are many more Nick Sabans and Bobby Petrinos, and recent years have only exacerbated the divide between college and professional coaching. Given what I said in point 2, I don't know if NFL players will buy the tough guy act that Harbaugh spend so much time portraying. It's one thing to be the intimating coach at Stanford (where the students probably are already more respectful to authority than the average college football player); it's quite another to do in the land of $20 million bonus and the salary cap. If Jim doesn't like a guy, he just can't recruit a replacement or even threaten to pull the scholarship. Instead, you are stuck with the hand you are dealt. The decrease in authority is something both Pete Carroll and Nick Saban talked about when they went to college, and I can't imagine it will sit well with Harbaugh long term. Even if he does quite well, then the odds of a power struggle between Harbaugh and new GM Trent Baalke will just rise exponentially as Harbaugh tries to regain the personnel authority he enjoyed at Stanford. Ultimately, I will be shocked if he actually finish his 5 years and even more shocked if the Niners enjoy serous success (NFC Championship game appearance or better).
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
NFL Playoff Predictions
Looking back at my regular season predictions, I got 5 of 6 AFC teams but only 3 of 6 NFC teams. Not bad, right? Here are my post season picks through the Super Bowl:
NFC
Wild Card Round - Saints over Seahawks; Eagles over Packers
Divisional Round - Falcons over Saints; Eagles over Bears
NFC Championship - Falcons over Eagles
AFC
Wild Card Round - Ravens over Chiefs; Colts over Jets
Divisional Round - Steelers over Colts; Patriots over Ravens
NFC Championship - Patriots over Steelers
Super Bowl
Patriots over Falcons
NFC
Wild Card Round - Saints over Seahawks; Eagles over Packers
Divisional Round - Falcons over Saints; Eagles over Bears
NFC Championship - Falcons over Eagles
AFC
Wild Card Round - Ravens over Chiefs; Colts over Jets
Divisional Round - Steelers over Colts; Patriots over Ravens
NFC Championship - Patriots over Steelers
Super Bowl
Patriots over Falcons
Sunday, January 2, 2011
Farewell, 2010 Giants
As I sit down in my living room at kickoff of the NFC West title game on NBC, I feel sick. I look forward to 4 or 5 comments from Cris Collinsworth ripping on both of these inept teams. Personally I am rooting for Spags and the Rams (and some former Giants) over cowardly Pete Carroll and the Seahawks.
Regardless of the outcome of this game, the Giants season ended in horrible fashion. Since the NFL moved to the 12-team playoff format in 1990, only six teams with 10 or more wins have missed the playoffs, the most recent being the 11-5 New England Patriots in 2008. The Giants and Bucs share that unfortunate feeling tonight. Today's game against a rejuvenated Redskins team summed up the season pretty well - the running game was non-existent, Eli Manning threw an interception on a tipped ball, the offensive line shuffled around after Seubert was carted off the field, the offense didn't capitalize on turnovers, the offense sputtered late when it could have churned out clock, the defense gave up a big play, and special teams were a disaster.
Although they must be unhappy with the Chicago Bears offensive line and Jay Cutler today (21 for 39, 2 INTs, 6 sacks), the Giants have no one to blame but themselves. They had two opportunities to get into the postseason and failed. They certainly did not deserve that 6th playoff spot after what they gave away to Philadelphia and Green Bay. The 2010 Giants will forever be remembered for their Meltdown in the New Meadowlands (or insert other cliched catch phrase) - surrendering 28 points in the final 8 minutes in a game that would have all but clinched the NFC East. That catastrophic loss carried ahead to Green Bay where they were sluggish and sloppy. It's amazing how quickly a season can change in the NFL - this season was 8 minutes from promise, but ended in epic failure. That loss will be unforgettable for every coach, player, and fan in blue, so it will be interesting to see if it carries over into next year.
Statistically the Giants had some impressive marks - 3rd in offense, 6th in defense. The Giants led the league in takeaways (16 INTs, 22 fumbles), but gave the ball away 42 times, the most in the NFL. The Giants are the San Diego Chargers of the NFC - big stats but nothing to show for it. After a sluggish 1-2 start, the Giants rallied off 5 straight victories. During that winning streak they looked like an offensive power with Hakeem Nicks and Eli Manning connecting for big play after big play. The defense was dominant and knocked out 5 quarterbacks. They put together two complete performances in dominating Houston on the road in Week 5 and destroying the lowly Seahawks away Week 9. Although they were 6-2, lots of sports writers questioned the integrity of this team with its tendency to give away the football. Also, the Giants have a recent history of limping to the finish. For example, the 2008 Giants started 11-1 and finished 1-4 (including the playoffs). The 2009 Giants started 5-0 and finished 3-8. Today the merits of those doubts were proven as the Giants finished the second half 4-4. Of course injuries can kill a team's momentum (i.e. Steve Smith/Hakeem Nicks in 2010, Kenny Phillips in 2009, Plex in 2008), but this trend is disturbing and Coach Coughlin has to correct it.
Looking back on every loss, each one was very demoralizing. All 6 losses came in pairs, so the team showed a lack of resiliency. The Giants always found ways to beat themselves and really only were outplayed in Week 2 at Indy.
-Week 3 versus Tennessee - 5 personal fouls, 3 turnovers.
-Week 10 versus Dallas - 8 penalties, 3 turnovers including a 101 yard pick 6.
-Week 11 at Philadelphia - 5 turnovers, the Pierre-Paul offsides that set up the 50-yd go-ahead touchdown by LeSean McCoy.
-Week 15 versus Philadelphia - see Manningham fumble in 3rd quarter, Celek 65-yd touchdown, onsides kick, Tuck offsides, Diehl false start, and The Punt.
-Week 16 at Green Bay - see Week 15, 6 turnovers, and the Terrell Thomas personal foul before halftime right after the game was tied at 14-14.
One of the season's key moments occurred right before the Week 10 home game against Dallas - disaster struck when Steve Smith tore his pectoral muscle in Thursday's practice. That injury took away Eli Manning's most reliable receiver. Smith is a great route runner and invaluable in 3rd down situations. Smith was sidelined with the torn pectoral muscle until the Giants’ 21-3 win over the Vikings on Dec. 13, when he returned but sustained a season-ending injury to the articular cartilage in his left knee in the fourth quarter. Success on 3rd down is critical for extending drives, wearing down defenses, and running out the clock (see Week 15). Losing Smith contributed significantly to the Giants collapse.
As disappointed as I feel tonight, there is a lot to feel good about looking forward (as opposed to the 2011+ Mets). First, the Giants have a QB. There are 14 or 15 teams that have uncertainty at this position, so the Giants should feel lucky to have the durable Eli Manning under center. The receiving core, when healthy, is as good as any group in the NFL. Injuries at receiver certainly disrupted the consistency of the offense in 2010, so a healed up group will be crucial for success in 2011. The offensive line did a terrific job battling through injuries. Kareem McKenzie and Chris Snee hung in there on the right side, but there were lots of different bodies at the 3 other spots. Whichever group played did a terrific job at pass protection, but run blocking was inconsistent. Shaun O'Hara likely needs offseason surgery on his foot/achilles and Rich Seubert dislocated his knee cap in Week 17. The entire group is aging and showing a lack of durability, so look for the Giants to draft some linemen for the future. On defense, coordinator Perry Fewell had a terrific season. The Giants had a dominant pass rush, stopped the run, limited big plays, and led the league in turnovers. Antrel Rolle, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Deon Grant were terrific acquisitions by Jerry Reese. Osi Umenyiora had a great season after being benched most of 2009 (11.5 sacks, 10 forced fumbles - tying the NFL record). Justin Tuck was also dominant and was a leading tackler. Looking ahead, I love this group although we could use improvement at linebacker. I imagine Mathias Kiwanuka is done as a Giant, and we'll see if Barry Cofield is re-signed. Special teams were a disaster all season - and helped cost them a spot in the playoffs. Tynes kicked pretty well, but all other units were unacceptable. On the bright side, it will be nice to get Domenik Hixon back for kickoff and punt returns.
So farewell 2010 New York Giants. Thanks for the awful memories. I just hope the Miracle at the New Meadowlands doesn't carry over into next season (i.e. 2007 and 2008 Mets). This team needs to learn how to protect the football, close out games, play 4 quarters, and bounce back from adversity. This team came up short on all fronts, so they are not worthy of a championship. Looking forward, they have promise and I am confident Tom Coughlin will get them back to the postseason tournament. Speaking of Coughlin, owner John Mara already announced that Coughlin will return next season. I imagine they will give him a one or two year extension. Sorry, Bill Cowher.
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