Role Reversal

In the 1990s, I had a pro baseball and pro football team . One team was a joke. They played in a run down, pathetic stadium. Instead of going outside of the organization, they would retain coaches and player personnel guys because they were there, not because they were talented. They had to massively overpay free agents, and the only ones willing to come were midlevel players looking for a payday, not a championship. The fan base, already cynical from years of losing, became more and more frustrated with every passing year.

The another team was a model of success and the envy of the rest of the conference. They drafted well, spent money but did it fairly wisely, and were fortunate enough to have players willingly to take less to play for a winner. Their leaders were Hall of Fame players lauded for their professionalism and devotion to the game. Championships were expected, and any season that ended before league championship round was a massive disappointment. Not only did that team win many big games, but they set records in those games that weren't going to be broken.

It's 2010 now, and somehow the roles have completely reversed. However, I'm not going to make the same mistake and expect the good times to last forever, because the windows is going to close (and probably pretty soon). So when I have two players step up with two classic performances, I'm going to make sure to enjoy it, because it's probably won't happen again. I don't know what will happen next round (though #55 scares the hell out of me), but even if things don't work out, I won't get too upset. Long term success in professional sports in unbelievable hard, and changing the expectations of a franchise and an entire city are even more difficult. Somehow though, this team has done it, so that nights like tonight are no longer a shock to the system. I just need to make sure to enjoy it. If I forget, I can always look at this.

Is ESPN Serious?

• GAME 3: SAT, OCT 9 8:37 PM
  Twins

  MIN LEADS 2-0
  YankeesMatchup »
• GAME 3: SUN, OCT 10 7:07 PM
  Phillies

  CIN LEADS 2-0
  RedsMatchup »
• GAME 3: SUN, OCT 10 4:37 PM
  Giants

  SERIES TIED 1-1
  BravesMatchup »

This is worse than BC's AL playoff prediction. Next thing you know they'll have a graphic up saying the Mets are in the World Series.

Weekend Pickoff

Indianapolis
Buffalo
Cincinnati
Atlanta
Detroit
Baltimore
Carolina
Green Bay
Houston
New Orleans
Dallas
San Diego
San Francisco
NY Jets

Smuckers

Jacksonville

Cinci

Hotlanta

Detroit

Indi

Green Bay

Chitown

Baltimore

Houston

N.O.

Dallas

San Diego

Philly

NYJ

FDR:

Jacksonville

Cinci

Atlanta

St. Louis

Indy

Washington

Chicago

Baltimore

Houston

New Orleans

Tennessee

San Diego

San Fran

Minny

Bob Cobb: 39-23 (8-6 last week)
FDR: 38-24 (8-6 last week)
Smuckers: 36-26 (10-4 last week)

No no

no no no no no no no no. And that, ladies and gentlefolk, is what you call an alpha performance. Hopefully Cole was taking notes.

Would You Work For This Guy?

I didn't think so.

Meet Jeff Wilpon, COO of the New York Mets and the son of Mets pricipal owner Fred Wilpon. On Monday, the father/son duo called for a press conference and explained to the media why they relieved Omar Minaya of his General Manager duties and fired Manager Jerry Manuel after their second straight losing season. "We failed," said Fred Wilpon. The two sat there and answered the media for about an hour. Fred seemed sincere while Jeff came off as agitated and a bit overwhelmed. Jeff's role is what worries me the most.

These moves of course were expected. Manuel's contract expired this year. Minaya, on the other hand, is under contract through 2012 (owed about $2 million). The owners say that the new GM will decide if he wants Minaya back in a diminished role and will pick the new manager.

The media focused on the issue that there is a perception around the league that the Wilpons are micro-managers and get involved in baseball decisions. The Wilpons recognize this perception and insist that a new GM will have "full autonomy" and that "the old general manager had that." This is why I'm most concerned about Jeff Wilpon's relationship with this team. There's a major problem with your franchise if the best people in the business wouldn't be interested in working for a team in the country's largest market. Check out Joel Smerman's excellent article in the NY Post that describes Wilpon's reputation as "short-tempered, tone deaf, a credit seeker, an accountability deflector, a micro-manager, a second-guesser, a less-than-deep thinker, and bad at self-awareness." Sounds like the ideal boss, right? This new hire will be one of the most imporant decisions for ownership in its 30-year tenure at the helm of this franchise. They have to clear the air as they interview candidates and make it resonate that they will live up to their promise of autonomy. As Fred Wilpon said, "we're not qualified to pick baseball players." So set the budget and keep your hands off!

There's also significant speculation that the Mets are facing financial meltdown. It was revealed last year that Fred Wilpon was a long-time client of Bernard Madoff. The bankruptcy trustee revealed that Mets LP, a team affiliate, actually withdrew close to $50 million more than it had invested. This briefly abated conjecture that the Wilpons would be forced to sell the team. In July, however, a complaint was filed in Manhattan federal court saying Sterling Equities (the Mets are an affiliate of Sterling Equities) invested $16.2 million of its 401(k) plan's $17.6 million of assets with Madoff. This reignited media speculation surrounding the health of the Wilpon empire.

The Mets received $695.4 million in tax-free bonds to finance the construction of Citi Field. In February, this municipal debt was downgraded by Standard & Poor's to BB+, its highest non-investment grade rating. This downgrade was also a result of Ambac's rolw of insuring the bonds; their credit rating is CC. This June, the Mets refinanced $375 million of debt and had to put up more guarantees in the process since one of their Madoff investments was in the collateral pool. This may suggest the team's finances are rather healthy since they were able to maintain the same level of loan proceeds. Of course there isn't enough public information to confirm this assertion.

SportsNet New York, the New York Mets-controlled regional sports network, was launched in 2006 with Comcast and Time Warner as minority partners. SNY recently borrowed $450 million to refinance its existing debt and to make dividend distributions to investors. According to sources, the network has cash flow of about $100 million. This revenue stream is more inelastic since it is tied to cable subscribership. Fred Wilpon told the media at his press conference that the network is performing very well - for whatever that's worth.

The ongoing theme here is that the Mets have a significant amount of debt - albeit at low rates since some of this debt floats over Libor and the tax-free financing is at a very low rate. Their attendance, however, was down 600,000 gate receipts, a 17.2% drop from the inaugural season at Citi Field. Will attendance continue to sour with a losing product on the field? I would think so. Besides, ownership admits that the Mets are in a rebuilding phase. Look back at my post from August which lays out the $120 million of payroll commitments for 2011. If they are able to shed KRod, that number could come down $11.5 million, but it still seems unlikely that they can play a role in the free agency market for someone like Cliff Lee. Ownership must be losing quite a lot of money each year as the revenue line shrinks and any net income is swallowed up by their massive debt service amounts.

Fred Wilpon said the last four years have been the hardest of his 30 years of ownership. I certainly share that sentiment. Sadly, I am worried it will take just as long to turn things around.

MLB Playoff Predictions

NL:
Phillies over Reds
Giants over Braves
....
Phillies over Giants

AL:
Rangers over Rays
Twins over Yankees
....
Twins over Rangers

World Series:
Twins over Phillies (6 games)

Regular Season Awards

It's always sad when the baseball season ends - the postseason is exciting even if your team didn't make the playoffs, but the broadcasts are always horrible and the games end way too late. Thankfully Chip Caray isn't participating this October - nor is Dane Cook.

Before I recap yesterday's lovely press conference with New York Metropolitan ownership, I wanted to give out my annual MLB awards:

NL MVP - Joey Votto

AL MVP - Josh Hamilton

NL Cy Young - Roy Halladay

AL Cy Young - David Price

NL Rookie of the Year - Buster Posey

AL Rookie of the Year - Austin Jackson

NL Manager of the Year - Bud Black

AL Manager of the Year - Ron Gardenhire

SAFO Dud of the Year - Oliver Perez (0-5, 6.80 ERA, 46.1 IP, 54 H, 37 R, 9 HR, 42 BB, 37 SO, 4 WP, 4 HB, 2.07 WHIP)