Tuesday, October 26, 2010

The End of an Era?

Bob Cobb had a great Friday night watching the 2010 Yankees end their season after being outplayed and outmanaged by the young and talented Texas Rangers. Despite having more or less the same team as last year's champions, the 2010 Yankees lacked the killer instinct they displayed last postseason.

Looking forward to the offseason, the debate begins whether the Yankees will re-sign their core group of Captain Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, and Andy Pettitte. This group won five rings together, but I think they just played their last game together.

Derek Jeter
Jeter is the greatest Yankee since Don Mattingly. His #2 jersey for certain will be retired one day. After the season ended Friday night, Jeter completed the final year of a 10-year $189 million contract. Even though 2010 was one of the worst seasons of his career (.270/.340/.370 in 2010 compared to .314/.385/.452 for his career), Jeter will remain a Yankee. I think he will agree to a 4-year $50 million contract with the Yanks - any other team would offer him roughly 4 years and $32 million. He is 36 with declining range at SS and waning numbers at the plate. His value to the Yankees brand and his leadership are plenty to justify the incremental cost to the Steinbrenners. Besides, do you see any other leadership on this team? I think Mark Teixeira is the next captain of the Yankees, but he won't get that chance until Jeter's career ends. Otherwise, I don't see anyone else who could fill that void - certainly not A-Rod, Cano, etc.

Mariano Rivera
Mariano Rivera is one of the greatest Yankees ever and his #42 will be retired in the Bronx as soon as he leaves the game of baseball. He just finished the final year of a 3-year $45 mm deal. This September he showed some age, but he still dominated the Twins in the ALDS. If he decides to return, the Yanks will offer him a 1-year deal, but Mo will ask for a 2-year deal. Cashman will give it to him - 2 years, $28 mm. Besides, he made 61 appearances, saved 33/38 games, 0.83 WHIP, and 1.80 ERA. Mo turns 41 next month and my gut is that he'll leave baseball. I'm guessing after he won that fifth ring he thought that same team could get a sixth. That didn't happen, so I think he hangs it up. Whether or not Jeter stays with the Yanks could also influence Mo.

Andy Pettitte
No matter what happens this offseason, Andy Pettitte has been a great Yankee. His career numbers are impressive, but in my opinion not worthy of Cooperstown. His postseason record of 19-10 with a 3.83 ERA may grab some votes, but I still think he'll come up short with 240 wins, a career ERA of 3.88, and 0 Cy Young awards (he only contended for a Cy in 1996). For the last four seasons, Pettitte has signed one-year contracts with the Yankees - contemplating retirement each offseason. This season he earned $11.75 million. He pitched at a very high level in the first half, but a groin injury cost him 2 months and reminded him that his 38-year-old body (without the HGH) is wearing down.
Getting a deal done with Jeter might be the most important task for Cashman to re-sign Mo and Pettitte. I can't imagine those guys like hanging out with A-Rod.

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