One for the Next Thumb

While the last two days have seen ESPN showing a certain punt return on endless replay, an equally worthy story line has gone unnoticed. The 2010 San Francisco 49ers still have a strong to quite strong chance to make the playoffs. If you're surprised that an 0-5 team that recently got embarrassed on national television could still basically control their own destiny, you're not alone (this blog was going to be a breakdown of coaching candidates until I actually realized a 5-9 team without a clear starting QB could host a playoff game). Anyway, here's the breakdown of how things could shake out and who will have the honor of getting trashed by the Saints in wild card round.

St. Louis Rams (6-8): Games: Home vs. SF, Away at Seattle.

The Rams have the clearest and probably best chance to get in. If they win both remaining games, they are in (the Rams would be the only team with 8 wins). Even if the Rams lose at home on Sunday, they could still make the playoffs by beating Seattle at home next week and having the Cardinals beating the 49ers in San Francisco (and if you don't think that's possible, you clearly haven't seen the NFC West).

If I am the Saints/Giants/Bucs/Packers, the Rams are the team I don't know to see in the playoffs. They have a coach who knows defense, a veteran but still productive RB, and a rookie QB who has done enough to make you concerned. Essentially, they are a coordinated tripping plan and a sexual harassment claim away from being the Jets, except no one cares because they aren't in New York. While I'm sure the Giants might not want another crack at Mr. Vick in a 3-6 opening game, I don't think Eli wants to see a Spagnuolo led defense either.

Seatlle (6-8): Games: Away at Tampa Bay, Home at St. Louis

While the Seahawks also control their own destiny (2 wins and they also would be in the only team with 8 wins), their road is much harder since they have to go to Tampa Bay this week and play a Bucs team still in the playoff race (the Giants-Packers game is also at 4:15, so Seattle won't get the benefit of playing a Bucs team who knows they are out of it). Beside having to cross the continental United Stated diagonally to play this game (maybe the karma police finally caught Pete Carroll), the Seahawks are 5-18 the last three years on the road.

If the Hawks lose as expected, things get much messier for them. A Niners win on Sunday would leave Seattle at the mercy of the Cardinals, since the Niners would own the tiebreaker over Seattle with a better division record. A Rams win Sunday, however, would make the Rams-Seahawks game a play-in, since the Seahawks could tie the Rams with a win at 7-9 and still own the tiebreaker with a better division record. Of course, that means a team that has openly debated starting Charlie Whitehurst would have to win a big game, but again, this is the NFC West.

San Francisco (5-9): Games: Away at St. Louis, Home at Arizona.

The breakdown for the Niners is much simpler. First, they must win out, as a loss would keep them at 6 wins while the Rams or the Seahawks, by playing each other, is assured 7 wins. Second, Seattle must lose at least once. Two wins by Seattle would give them 8 wins, but one loss Seattle would lead to either a two or three way tie at 7-9, with the Niners winning out because a 5-1 division record.

Thus, even though they will be only shown in about 12% of the country, the Niners-Rams and Rams-Seahawks games the next two weeks will have as much impact as any other pair of games going forward in determining the NFC playoff picture. Given the stakes of this Sunday's game, the question becomes who will Mike Singletary start at quarterback: the former Heisman winner who lacks accuracy but provided a brief mid-season spark or the former #1 pick who has constantly haunted the franchise for 6 years. While no one knows for sure right now, this content of this video may hold the key not just to #50's choice but the entire NFC first round set up.