World Cup Preview

The Definitive World Cup Preview

The World Cup kicks off on Friday, and that means as the self-appointed soccer correspondent for Shallow and Fairly Obvious, it's time for your preview.

The Basics:

-32 teams qualified
-8 groups of 4 teams, roughly divided up between geographic area
-Top 2 teams from each group advance from round-robin stage to single-elimination round.

U.S. History:

- The U.S. didn't qualify from 1954-1990
- This is the fifth straight qualification for the U.S.starting in 1990.
- Our best finish was 3rd place in 1930 (ancient era); quarterfinals in 2002 (modern era)

World Cup History:

- Past winners: Brazil 5x, Italy 4x, Germany 3x, Argentina 2x, Uruguay 2x, England, France
- Host country has advanced past round-robin stage every tournament
- No European country has ever won the World Cup when it has been played outside of Europe
- Only South American and European teams have ever won the World Cup.

Before I get to my picks, here's a rundown of the groups and my predicted finish:

Group A

1. Mexico - El Tri are consistent and usually advance.
2. South Africa - gotta go with the home side here even though this is the worst of the bunch on paper
3. France - Boom or bust side squad. Classic under achievers. Either Mex or France win the group though, with SA coming in 2nd.
4. Uruguay - A couple of world class players surrounded by mediocrity.

Group B

1. Argentina - One of my semifinal picks. Coaching is overrated at this level, so I don't see Maradona being a distraction. Plus, Messi is unreal.
2. Greece - Stingy defense and a deadly counter-attack keep Greece alive. Their games are usually low scoring affairs..
3. Nigeria - The Nigeria/Greece match up should decide the 2nd place winner in the group. I'll go with organization over the home continent advantage.
4. South Korea - It's easy enough to dominate the Asian competition, but a rung below the rest of the group.

Group C

1. England - Injuries aside, they're the class of this group, and it's not that close.
2. U.S. - Even though I expect a loss to England in the first game, we should cobble together enough points to advance. Call is 1-1-1, 4 pts, and we sneak by on goal differential
3. Algeria - Scrappy African lot will be tough to break down.
4. Slovenia - They are certainly talented, but will be over matched in this group

Group D

1. Germany - Death. Taxes. Germany advancing the the quarterfinals. Only sure things in life.
2. Serbia - The other three teams can all make strong cases for second place, but call it a gut feeling.
3. Ghana - Losing Michael Essien is brutal. Tough luck for this strong African side.
4. Australia - Just like South Korea, the competition is much better than Asian qualifying.

Group E

1. Netherlands - Total soccer should waltz through this group pretty easily.
2. Cameroon - I expect the Cameroon/Denmark game to decide 2nd place.
3. Denmark - Surprise qualifier should have their hands full with the Dutch and Cameroon
4. Japan - They just don't have the talent to hang in this group.

Group F

1. Italy - This side hasn't looked sharp recently, but playing in the easiest group always helps.
2. Paraguay - If this were any other group, I'd pick Paraguay to finish 3rd or 4th
3. Slovakia - They are just happy to be here.
4. New Zealand - New Zealand...Rocks!!! Probably the worst team in the World Cup.

Group G

1. Brazil - Best team in the world will handle the group of death with authority
2. Portugal - Before the Drogba injury, I was picking the Ivory Coast to slip by. No longer.
3. Ivory Coast - If Drogba plays, Ivory Coast/Portugal could be the best round-robin match.
4. North Korea - I'd be surprised if they score a goal in the tournament.

Group H

1. Spain - The class of Europe should not find any resistance in this group.
2. Chile - Switzerland/Chile match up should determine 2nd place. Let's give the nod to the South Americans.
3. Switzerland - About as boring a side as they come. Expect lots of 1-0, 1-1 games from these anonymous players.
4. Honduras - They are just happy to be there.

Predictions:

If England, Brazil, Argentina and Spain all win their groups, they would be on a collision course for the semi's. I like Brazil over England in one semi, and Spain over Argentina in the other. Remember how I said no European team had ever won the World Cup outside of Europe...well, that's not going to change. Call it 2-1 Brazil over Spain in the Final. Certainly not going too far out on a limb with a Brazil/Spain final, but they are easily the most talented teams.

In general I like Argentina, Engalnd to do well. France, Italy will disappoint. If you're looking for an underdog look at Argentina and Netherlands. Very exciting stuff.